A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g(s)) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO(3)SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g(s) in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f(phen) and f(SWP) were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites.     

Images of war: using satellite images for human rights monitoring in Turkish Kurdistan

In areas of war and armed conflict it is difficult to get trustworthy and coherent information. Civil society and human rights groups often face problems of dealing with fragmented witness reports, disinformation of war propaganda, and difficult direct access to these areas. Turkish Kurdistan was used as a case study of armed conflict to evaluate the potential use of satellite images for verification of witness reports collected by human rights groups. The Turkish army was reported to be burning forests, fields and villages as a strategy in the conflict against guerrilla uprising. This paper concludes that satellite images are useful to validate witness reports of forest fires. Even though the use of this technology for human rights groups will depend on some feasibility factors such as prices, access and expertise, the images proved to be key for analysis of spatial aspects of conflict and valuable for reconstructing a more trustworthy picture.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Evaluation of Carbon Uptake and Emissions by Forests in Korea During the Last Thirty Years (1973–2002)

The contribution of Korean forests to carbon sequestration for anthropogenic carbon emissions was evaluated. In addition, monitoring of carbon species released from forest fires was conducted. Despite a high carbon uptake by Korean forests, a tremendous increase in fossil fuel burning resulted in a small contribution by forests to carbon removal. The removal efficiency had a 5–31% range with an average of 12% during the period 1973–2002. In 2000, the amount of carbon released from burned trees corresponded to 1.6% of carbon uptake by forests. The distribution of surface CO concentration (ppb) derived from MOPITT (Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere) showed high CO levels over the East/Japan Sea on April 10, 2000 when the largest forest fires occurred along the east coast of Korea. Trajectory analysis and ground CO measurements also indicated that CO levels over the East/Japan Sea were influenced by forest fires. This study suggests that continuous monitoring of carbon emissions from forest fires is needed for a more reliable estimate of carbon flux in the environment.     

Barriers Beyond the Partners: Bureaucratic and Political Constraints to Implementing Joint Forest Management in Tamil Nadu,India

Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain.     

Paleoecology and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Central Evenkia during the past 2400 years

New data on the composition of surface assemblages of plant macroremains from soil and swamp samples have been obtained in the study of geomorphologically different localities in the middle reaches of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River. The results of paleocarpological analysis of forest soil sections supported by relevant palynological and geochronological data are presented. Natural changes of the forest cover over the past 2400 years and quantitative characteristics of the paleoclimate during each stage are described.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–10.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Koshkarova, Koshkarov.     

激励相容理论视角下生态公益林补偿对农户的增收效应——以福建三明为例

基于福建三明499户农户的实地调查数据,用倾向得分匹配法测算了生态公益林现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对农户的增收效应,结果表明：现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对生态保护和农户增收都是正效应。现金直接补偿对农户增收效应不显著,而岗位性补偿对农户家庭总收入和家庭人均收入的净效应分别达55.4%和57%。进一步研究发现,两种补偿方式对贫困户和非贫困户的增收效应也不尽相同,其中现金直接补偿不利于贫困户增收,而岗位性补偿对不同收入的农户都具有正向显著增收效应。此外,从生态公益林的根本使命出发,可以发现现金直接补偿和岗位性补偿对生态保护的净效应也存在较大差异。故此,科学规划生态补偿方式和补偿标准是实现生态保护和农户增收双重效应的根源所在。     

基于RF-LSTM的鸡舍恶臭气体预测研究

以鸡舍氨气为研究对象,对鸡舍氨气预测模型进行了研究.首先,利用随机森林算法（RF）对影响鸡舍氨气浓度的环境变量进行重要性排序,选取温度、湿度、光照、气象温度、降雨量作为模型的输入变量;在此基础上,构建了基于长短时记忆神经网络（LSTM）的鸡舍氨气浓度预测模型,并将提出的预测模型应用于江苏省宜兴市某养鸡场的氨气浓度预测中,并与LSTM模型、RF-Elman模型和RF-BP模型进行了对比实验,结果表明,基于RF-LSTM模型的预测效果最好,其平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对百分误差（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）分别为0.9183、4.9637%和1.4262;同时,为了验证该模型的性能,本文还实现了不同时间尺度的鸡舍氨气浓度预测,提前2h、3h、4h、5h氨气预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）分别为1.6218、2.1991、2.8553和3.0677.本文提出的预测模型提高了鸡舍氨气浓度的预测精度,可为减少鸡舍恶臭气体排放提供科学依据.     

外加氮源影响下铁铝氧化物在土壤氮素转化中的作用

土壤中铁铝氧化物在团聚体稳定性和有机碳吸附方面具有重要作用,而氮添加对土壤氮循环影响的变化也可能与其有关,但是目前尚缺乏在氮循环方面的研究.为了探究铁铝氧化物在土壤氮素转化中的作用,选择福建省建瓯罗浮栲森林土壤为研究对象,采用选择性溶提技术准备不同的土壤——未经处理（T1）的土壤和去除游离态铁铝氧化物（T2）土壤、去除非晶质铁铝氧化物（T3）土壤、去除络合态铁铝氧化物（T4）土壤,在这些土壤中添加不同形态氮（40 mg/kg）——丙氨酸（氨基酸态氮,AA）、硫酸铵（铵态氮,AN）、硝酸钠（硝态氮,NAN）和亚硝酸钠（亚硝态氮,NIN）,进行室内培养试验,分析氮含量变化和氮素转化情况.结果表明:①与CK处理相比,AA和AN处理均增加了T1土壤中w（NH₄+-N）,NAN处理增加了w（NO₃--N）,但低于添加量,表明添加氨基酸和铵态氮均会促进氮矿化,添加硝态氮会增加NO₃--N的固定且抑制其硝化.②在CK处理下,与T1土壤相比,T2和T4土壤中w（NH₄+-N）、w（NO₃--N）和w（氨基酸）均降低,但T3土壤中w（NH₄+-N）和w（氨基酸）增加、w（NO₃--N）降低,表明土壤中游离态氧化铁铝和络合态氧化铁铝的存在有助于氮素矿化,非晶质氧化铁铝有助于硝化.③在不同氮处理下,各土壤的氮含量及其转化速率与CK处理规律相似.与CK处理相比,各氮处理均未显著增加T2和T4土壤中w（NH₄+-N）,且AA和AN处理均未影响T2、T3和T4土壤中w（NO₃--N）和w（氨基酸）.结果显示,氮添加并没有改变铁铝氧化物的作用,其中,矿化和氨化作用均表现为游离氧化铁铝>络合氧化铁铝>非晶质氧化铁铝,硝化作用表现为非晶质氧化铁铝>游离氧化铁铝>络合态氧化铁铝.因此,土壤铁铝氧化物的不同存在状态应该是调节氮素转化的重要土壤条件.